MONEX 環球個人投資者調查報告

2019年12月

Summary

1. Global Survey Results: Survey of Retail Investors in Japan, U.S. and China (H.K.)
   
   
   (1-1) The forecast DI (*) for world stock markets rose in Japan and the U.S. but worsened and fell into negative territory in China (Hong Kong).
   
   We asked retail investors in each region about their views on world stock markets for the coming three months. Among retail investors in Japan and the U.S., the DI rose from the previous survey (conducted in December 2018). Among retail investors in China (Hong Kong), however, the DI worsened 12 percentage points, falling into negative territory. The progress at trade talks between the U.S. and China and the recent firm tone of stock markets appears to have led to improvement in the views of retail investors in Japan and the U.S. Meanwhile, retail investors in China (Hong Kong) may have been influenced by factors such as the intensification of anti-government demonstrations.
   
   

   [The forecast DI for world stock markets]

   [Japan]	Dec. 2018: 4 → Dec. 2019: 14 (+10 points)
   [U.S.]	Dec. 2018: 10 → Dec. 2019: 29 (+19 points)
   [China (H.K.)]	Dec. 2018: 8 → Dec. 2019: -4 (-12 points)

   
   
   
   * DI (diffusion index): The percentage of respondents who answered, "will rise or improve" minus the percentage of respondents who answered "will fall or deteriorate."
   
   
   (1-2) Expectations for U.S. stocks were highest among retail investors in all three regions.
   
   Retail investors in all three regions answered that the U.S. is the region with the greatest likelihood of stock price appreciation in the coming three months. Despite fears of a U.S. recession for a time, the U.S. economy is holding up well, with some recently announced economic indicators signaling a healthy recovery. Meanwhile, stocks are also surging to new record highs. These two factors appear to be increasing expectations for U.S. stocks.
   
   

   [Expectations for stock markets in the coming three months]

   [Japan]	U.S.: 61.4%	Europe/U.K.: 7.6%	Asia excl. Japan: 14.1%	Japan: 16.9%
   [U.S.]	U.S.: 81.0%	Europe/U.K.: 8.6%	Asia excl. Japan: 5.2%	Japan: 5.2%
   [China (H.K.)]	U.S.: 61.1%	Europe/U.K.: 10.2%	Asia excl. Japan: 22.2%	Japan: 6.6%

   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   (1-3) Among retail investors in the U.S. and China, the percentage expecting a stronger U.S. dollar was highest.
   
   In both the U.S. and China (Hong Kong), the currency that retail investors consider most likely to increase in value in the coming three months was U.S. dollar. However, the percentage of retail investors in the U.S. and China (Hong Kong) who gave this answer fell slightly from the previous survey. As for the USD/JPY forecast for the coming three months among Japanese retail investors, the percentage of retail investors who believe that the yen will depreciate against the dollar increased significantly.
   
   
   
   
   * Figure 3-1 shows a comparison with the previous survey (December 2019) for retail investors in the U.S. and China (Hong Kong). Figure 3-2 shows changes in USD/JPY forecast among Japanese retail investors from December 2014 to the present. Japanese retail investors were surveyed every month from the start of the survey to April 2016, every two months from June 2016 to December 2016, and every quarter from March 2017 to the present.
   
   
   
   (1-4) The percentage of retail investors in Japan investing in cryptocurrency reached its highest level.
   
   We asked retail investors about much-talked-about “cryptocurrency” such as Bitcoin, with respect to their experience with it and their willingness to invest in it. The percentage of retail investors in Japan answering that they had already invested in cryptocurrency was 13.1%, the highest level since this question was introduced in June 2017. The percentage of retail investors in China (Hong Kong) answering that they invest in cryptocurrency rose from the previous survey, but the percentage fell among retail investors in the U.S.
   
   
   
   
   
   
Results


2. Japan Specific Quarterly Survey Results: Survey of Retail Investors in Japan
   
   
   (2-1) The DIs for U.S., Japanese and Chinese stocks all rose
   
   We asked Japanese retail investors about their outlook for the stock markets in Japan, the U.S. and China in the coming three months and the DIs for all three improved. While the DIs for Japanese stocks and U.S. stocks were in positive territory, the DI for Chinese stocks was still deep in negative territory. The DI for U.S. stocks reached a high level of 39, and the bullish view on the U.S. where the economy is in recovery and stock prices are rising is striking.
   
   

   [Japanese Stocks DI]	Sep. 2019: -1 → Dec. 2019: 9 (+10 points)
   [U.S. Stocks DI]	Sep. 2019: 31 → Dec. 2019: 39 (+8 points)
   [China stocks DI]	Sep. 2019: -41 → Dec. 2019:-29 (+12 points)

   
   
   
   
   
   
   (2-2) The highest percentage of investors, 40%, forecast the 2020 high for the Nikkei average to be about 23,000 to 25,000 yen.
   
   We asked Japanese retail investors about their forecast of 2020 highs and lows of the Nikkei Stock Average and the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The percentage forecasting that the 2020 high of the Nikkei Stock Average would be 23,000 yen - 25,000 yen was highest, at 40%. The percentage forecasting a 2020 low of 19,000 yen - 21,000 yen was highest, at 41%. The percentage forecasting that the 2020 high of the Dow Jones Industrial Average would be $28,000-$30,000 was highest, at 38%, while the percentage forecasting a 2020 low of $25,000 -$28,000 was highest, at 45%. The forecast highs for both Japan and the U.S. are slighly higher than the current index levels while the forecast lows are slightly lower.
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   

Japan

United States

Hong Kong

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